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Instead of marking a cyclical rebound, 2026 is significantly deemed a debt consolidation year, in which diversification-led development becomes more deeply ingrained in the region's financial model, minimizing reliance on hydrocarbons and increasing durability to external shocks. Projections from major institutions broadly converge on a stronger GCC development profile in 2026 than in 2025, supported by durable domestic demand, continued non-oil growth, and (to varying degrees) a firmer hydrocarbon contribution.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

3.2 percent growth in 2025, speeding up to 4.5 percent in 2026. Sees momentum improving, with GCC output growth projected to increase from 1.7 percent in 2024 to 3.3 percent on average in 2025, reflecting a shift towards more positive overall conditions.

The IMF's World Economic Outlook (October 2025) jobs international development easing to 3.1 percent in 2026, with sophisticated economies around 1.5 percent and emerging market and developing economies just above 4 percent. On that comparison, a 4.44.5 percent GCC growth would put the region materially ahead of the world average and a little above (or broadly in line with) the emerging-market aggregate, enhancing the GCC's status as a relatively high-growth pocketprovided that local danger conditions remain consisted of and reform momentum holds.

Data from the GCC Statistical Center show that non-oil sectors already represent more than 73 percent of overall GDP, a share that has actually continued to increase as governments expand financial investment in services, infrastructure, and technology. According to Oxford Economics, non-energy activity across the GCC is projected to grow by around 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by strong labor markets, enhancing credit conditions, and increasing investment in technology and AI-related infrastructure.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

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Public-sector financial investment and reform remain central to sustaining this trend. Policy measures focused on attracting foreign direct investment, relieving foreign ownership rules, expanding capital markets, and supporting private-sector participation continue to underpin non-oil growth and lower the area's exposure to oil price volatility. While hydrocarbons no longer dominate the development outlook, oil earnings are anticipated to play a supportive function in 2026.

Oxford Economics expects Brent crude costs to fall below USD 60 per barrel in early 2026, limiting the near-term contribution of oil extraction to GDP. Oil supply is anticipated to increase again in the 2nd half of the year, with a complete relaxing of remaining production caps likely by mid-2027.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

Macroeconomic conditions across the GCC remain broadly supportive of growth. Inflation is expected to remain low, with the IMF forecasting average inflation of 2 percent throughout the area in 2026. Stable costs are helping maintain genuine household earnings and underpin consumer spending, which Oxford Economics expects to grow by an average of 3.5 percent over 20262027.